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Fine MOS Temperature Forecast Based on MMS
CHEN Shu-Yang, CHEN Xiao-Guang, MA Jin-Ren, MA Shai-Yan, SHAO Jian
J4    2005, 23 (4): 52-56.  
Abstract1611)      PDF(pc) (234KB)(1804)       Save

Based on hourly data of both basic; elements forecasting fields and physical quantity diagnosing fields of MMS,and the temperature records of 25 stations in Ningxia from September 2002 to August 2003,multivariate and stepwise regressions were adopted to set up the MOS model of 48 hours hourly temperature forecast in 25 stations in Ningxia.  The effect test、onduc;ted from June 2004 to May 2005 indicates that the MOS method has a good(apability in forecasting 48 h hourly temperature in Ningxia.  As weather(hanged smoothly the forecast result of MOS was stable and mean absolute errors were within 2℃;When the(old air invaded the forecast result was unstable but it was much better than that of original product of MMS.  Some of the TS grades of 24 hours extreme temperature fnrenast are nlnse to nr even hetter than that of fnrenaetere

 

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